The International Cocoa Organization is forecasting a 6% decline for global cocoa production for 2021/22 season to 4.923 million tonnes.
This was contained in the latest ICCO quarterly bulletin of cocoa statistics published recently.
Compared to the 2020/21 season, for the current 2021/22 season, the forecast for global production is projected to decline by 6% to 4.923 million tonnes. Grindings on the other hand are expected to increase by almost 2% to 5.048 million tonnes. The gap will be covered by a reduction in stocks of 9%.
Several factors including adverse weather conditions and diseases are negatively affecting production for the ongoing season, with concerns for the size and quality of the ongoing mid-crop in West Africa.
Following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, trade disruptions, sanctions and high freight rates are affecting cocoa and fertilizer trade. The shortage of fertilizers on cocoa farms will very likely affect the quantity, quality and size of cocoa beans next year.
Despite the geopolitical and economic challenges that the world is currently facing, cocoa demand for the first half of the 2021/22 season has so far sustained a positive stance.
Factors which contributed to the increase in cocoa demand include the resumption of activities in the air travel sector, which is a major gateway for chocolate sales as well as the recommencement of seasonal festivities.
Positive quarterly earnings reports from major confectionary manufacturers for the period January – March 2022 also reveal that confectionary sales, which include chocolate, have picked up and are heading or at par with pre-COVID-19 era trends.